Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 18.130835 20.928679 24.250353 28.552964 34.083912 41.110474 50.983596
2025-01-26 16.346257 20.275219 25.501200 33.258965 45.073996 63.588183 97.899358
2025-02-02 14.622857 18.967683 25.185566 35.327046 52.877369 85.705040 165.803176
2025-02-09 12.554653 16.693258 22.866175 33.510827 53.470946 95.615171 223.417445
2025-02-16 11.644137 15.904216 22.555011 34.777403 60.017340 122.414140 386.009590
2025-02-23 10.675114 14.862777 21.620204 34.644476 63.660050 145.740818 635.034481
2025-03-02 9.872548 13.968172 20.765182 34.421296 67.015185 172.239085 1127.172281
2025-03-09 9.302682 13.373941 20.323823 34.897579 72.351715 213.357994 2699.731786
2025-03-16 8.565866 12.423309 19.111995 33.481579 72.042823 231.926922 5340.437354
2025-03-23 8.096864 11.878232 18.570954 33.420903 75.709374 277.764097 29477.619847
2025-03-30 7.488484 11.041604 17.388176 31.677157 73.503853 287.807895 168671.324448
2025-04-06 6.887267 10.176632 16.074620 29.435441 69.005941 278.044316 929634.369295
2025-04-13 6.368956 9.447065 15.004913 27.737691 66.273970 282.004214 NaN
2025-04-20 6.535631 9.937522 16.365391 32.239823 88.161623 589.568836 NaN
2025-04-27 6.424244 9.912464 16.685759 34.213830 102.563395 1020.662939 NaN
2025-05-04 6.016976 9.307667 15.727873 32.480376 99.033717 1072.542386 NaN
2025-05-11 5.876745 9.192690 15.799465 33.689446 111.130526 1897.548524 NaN
2025-05-18 5.648892 8.894001 15.439983 33.562600 116.315473 2839.165269 NaN
2025-05-25 5.433932 8.605544 15.074700 33.349607 121.083284 4469.573628 NaN
2025-06-01 5.279496 8.423923 14.930482 33.804115 130.783540 10357.735320 NaN
2025-06-08 5.022968 8.027267 14.262761 32.452444 127.313801 12513.941156 NaN
2025-06-15 4.863748 7.814056 14.000306 32.394497 133.359743 35803.822203 NaN
2025-06-22 4.619228 7.419638 13.289176 30.728195 126.250162 32153.569359 NaN